Rationalize strategy on scientific and evidence basis to manage #COVID19

 RAJARAM BOJJI  

Rajaram Bojji M.Tech ., F.IE., F.N.A.E 

Research Scholar (Science &Technology) Herndon VA 20170 USA 

rajaram.bojji@gmail.com Twitter: @rbojji  

15 Oct 2020  

A strategy to eliminate SAR-V2-CORONA in  three months from our lives 

No One Under 95% SpO2 allowed to enter public space but remain under care.  

Abstract 

From developments on Dec 31st, 2019 when the first cases of SARS-V2-corona occurred, Wuhan and  COVID19 have become household names. The World Health Organization first declared an emergency and then soon,  became pandemic with more than 38 million patients and 1.1 million deaths as on date. Lockdowns and containment zones happen repeatedly. WHO guidelines covered only symptomatic cases while being aware the majority are asymptomatic. This has led to unending cycles of lock-unlock again lockdown strategies. Test, track, and treat as a mantra followed by masks and social distancing as a way of life with no end in sight. But once tested to be COVID negative, does not mean remains the same status. Daily testing cycles are not practical with test kits for everyone in any town. Unless economic life and activities are completely shut down and habitants confined to homes the patient count keeps growing. A catch 22 situation difficult choice: life or economy. It is shown in this paper how a nation can have both economic lives and also eliminate COVID19 cases from life using just a simple pulse Oximeter. The mathematical models show it is very effective and also a fortuitous field verification through strangely a social media like Twitter, for a famous slum Dharavi confirms without social distancing norm infections can be brought down to a naught. 

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1.0 WHO - China joint report  

Then the joint WHO China report on 28 Feb 2020 (https://drive.google.com/file/ d/1wTkrjj87ft18E0qaQsAr2bWYE-RVgcWA/view?usp=drivesdk) 

Extract : 

2.0 The WHO guidelines on COVID19  

For travel, the following para brings out how ineffective is thermal scan.  But still, the world was guided to follow only symptomatic and thermal scan as protocol. But they know full well asymptomatic but fully infected should not be allowed to spread.  

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The WHO missed the case study in China regarding pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic ones who were found to have full viral loads and can infect. In fact, starting from Drc 31 cases reporting including zero cases, the asymptomatic transmission was proved beyond doubt. Common sense is before symptoms appear the virus-carrying persons are asymptomatic in this virus attack. So it has to be considered a  necessary condition. 

3.0 What happens when one incorporates the SpO2 norm based on the facts recorded for corona infected. 

Let us make simple mathematical models for the WHO approach and compare the same by incorporating the SpO2 norm also. 

Let n be the number of infected  

Symptomatic assume proportion of p and so pn detected  

After period t the remaining (1-p)n will infect at the rate of r per person per   period t.  

Then increment for the period is p((1–p)n(1+r))  

This increment as a factor of previous period detected is (1-p)(1+r)  

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So for increment of cases from period to period, we can now study how p  and r influence  

From the model we can easily with partial lockdowns of the entertainment industry and tourism restaurants and even schools, we still keep getting rising curves of infections. 

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The antigen testing with its own reliability issues plus delayed test results, further depending on symptoms for triggering action in the current  WHO approach, leaves almost 70 to 80% of the total actually infected who are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic free to keep infecting others.  

Then when very harsh lockdowns and the curfew-like situation is forced to bring down the rate of transmission gets. China's example of almost culling like massive deaths is impractical for democracies. But that did yield corona free Wuhan. 

The smarter way is scientifically incorporate the SpO2 norm. The graph dips even with high r values!! 

4.0 Effort to get WHO protocols incorporate SpO2 norm. 

All efforts on Twitter and direct emails to DG WHO got ignored. But fortunately, private agencies picked up and tweets to various CM offices and municipality resulted in Dharavi adopting the SpO2 norm quietly in addition to official protocols issued by Governments based on WHO. 

Dharavi with 250,000 packed into tight 2 sq km was considered a powder keg ready to blow up a nightmarish COVID19 situation. Community toilets, 8 persons for a small room makes talk of social distancing a big joke. 

But the dedication of private doctors belonging there and some NGOs with pulse  Oximeter screening for 95% SpO2 level - those above allowed to stay; else frisked away to care center. 

As a matter of proof for the facts, the Twitter notes are reproduced. But since it is not as per officialdom view, reality kept hidden. 

Peruse proof.  

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Proof postings on government sites and on  

Twitter DM regarding Dharavi. The volunteers used to share proof using pulse oximeters.  

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So effort was made to get WHO revise their protocols to rationalize and be scientific.  COVID19 A NEW STRATEGY 7

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5.0 Vaccines and future life:  

The vaccine has its own gestation period and acceptance resistance. Further not effective beyond 70% reliability. 

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Recent statements by WHO that we have to accept COVID19 as part of  future life reality and live with it is definitely uncalled for. Lives are not that  cheap and living in constant fear without social interaction is what Dr  Tedros is envisaging. 

Absolutely not needed if the SpO2 norm is incorporated. Why WHO is resisting is a puzzle. 

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6.0 Conclusion  

The choice before the world is clear now, it is hoped. 

6.1 Foolishly follow WHO as being done now and cyclically  impose lockdowns or partial lockdowns live joyless life with  constant uncertainty 

OR  

6.2 Rationalize WHO guidelines :  

All under 95% of SpO2 shall remain isolated and treated as per  WHO guidelines for testing and treating for corona. Unless sustained  95% and above level reached not discharged. 

All others 95% and above shall have normal joyous life with standard sanitization precautions till the virus vanishes.